To be fair, there is one area where Brexit remains a friction point: Northern Ireland. The Northern Ireland Protocol and the subsequent Windsor Framework represent a lingering headache. It is a festering sore in the relationship between the EU and the UK, and it touches on the fragile peace of the island of Ireland.
However, this is a diplomatic management issue, not an existential crisis for the EU. The EU has maintained the integrity of its Single Market. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in Northern Ireland creates headaches for Westminster, not Brussels. The EU views the issue as largely settled, with mechanisms in place to handle the unique status of the border. Compared to the war in Ukraine or the collapse of the German industrial model, the status of checks on sausage imports to Belfast is a minor administrative irritant, not a systemic failure.
Part X: The True Future of the EU
So, what is the future of the EU? It is a future of struggle. The EU is at a crossroads where it must choose between becoming a “geopolitical power” or remaining a large “single market.”
To become a geopolitical power, it needs fiscal union, a real army, and a unified foreign policy. It needs to solve the democratic deficit. These are monumental tasks. They require treaty changes, which are risky because they require unanimity—and getting 27 countries to agree on anything is akin to herding cats.
If the EU fails to integrate further, it risks becoming a museum—a nice place to live, perhaps, with good social protections, but increasingly irrelevant on the world stage compared to the US, China, and India. It risks becoming a pawn in the great power games of the 21st century.
This is the real drama playing out in the corridors of Brussels. It is a drama of survival and relevance. In this high-stakes environment, the UK’s departure is background noise. The UK is now just one of many neighbors the EU must deal with—alongside Turkey, Ukraine (a candidate member), the Balkans, and North Africa.
Conclusion: Moving Past the Breakup
The European Union is a project in constant construction, but also constant crisis. It was built on the premise that economic integration would prevent war and bring prosperity. It has succeeded in preventing war among its members (until the destabilization of the Balkans in the 90s, which it managed), but it is struggling to deliver the prosperity and security of the future.
The problems of the EU are the problems of the modern world: how to maintain a welfare state with an aging population, how to maintain democracy in the age of social media disinformation, how to maintain security in a neighborhood full of autocrats, and how to maintain economic competitiveness against tech giants. These are the “hard yards” of politics.
Brexit was a political earthquake, but the tremors have subsided. The EU has not collapsed; in fact, it has arguably become more cohesive in the face of external threats. The UK is no longer the “problem child” of the EU; it is a sovereign neighbor dealing with its own sovereign problems.
The real threat to the European Union is not that its members will leave, but that its members will stay while losing faith in the project. It is the threat of the “internal Brexit”—a psychological withdrawal where states ignore EU law, harbor resentment, and fail to invest in the common good. That is the specter haunting Brussels today.
The EU has survived Brexit. The question now is whether it can survive itself.
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